Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Pick and Preview

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After coming so close to ending their playoff drought in 2021, the Seattle Mariners have been a disappointment thus far in 2022. Sitting at 24-30, the M’s are 11 games behind the Houston Astros in the American League West and three games back of the Boston Red Sox for the final Wild Card spot.

The Astros, meanwhile, just keep chugging along. Houston has won seven of its last 10 games and now looks like a pretty safe bet to repeat as division champs. The Astros are 35-19 on the season and have an 8.5-game cushion over the struggling Angels. 

That said, there are signals pointing to the Mariners as a live underdog in this game, which will begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Astros may be the glitzier, more dangerous offense, but Seattle has scored just one fewer run compared to Houston this season.

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Mariners vs. Astros MLB odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: SEA +1.5 (-140) vs. HOU -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline: SEA (+140) vs. HOU (-165)

Total: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)

Mariners vs. Astros probable pitchers

Robbie Ray (4.93) vs. Cristian Javier (2.41)

Robbie RayRobbie RayGetty Images

Mariners vs. Astros prediction

A look under the hood tells a similar story, as the Mariners have a slight edge in wRC+, while the Astros are just ahead of the M’s in terms of wOBA. Houston does boast the more powerful lineup, but Seattle’s got some pop with three players (Eugenio Suarez, Abraham Toro and Taylor Trammell) boasting ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. 

Seattle’s offense should have its work cut out for them against Cristian Javier, but the Astros’ righty should come back to earth as the season goes on. Through 41 innings pitched this season, Javier has posted a 2.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Those numbers sparkle — so does his 31.5% strikeout rate — but there are some regression indicators to his stat line, like an 84.1% strand rate and his still impressive 3.70 xFIP. 

Astros pitcher Cristian JavierCristian JavierGetty Images

The Mariners’ offense may not blow you away, but they should be able to hang in against Javier and make him work, as Seattle’s 21.9% K-rate against right-handed pitching is nothing to be alarmed about. 

It sounds weird to say, but reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray will be the B-side in this matchup against Javier. Ray’s first season with the Mariners has gotten off on shaky footing, but his numbers do point to some positive regression. Ray has pitched to a 4.93 ERA in 65.2 innings, but his xFIP is over two runs better than that at 3.66.

The Astros are the better team and are deserving favorites in this tilt, but this seems to be a good buy-low, sell-high spot on two starting pitchers. Additionally, Sean Zerillo’s Action Network MLB Model makes the Mariners a +127 underdog on Monday night, so there’s plenty of value at the current price of +140.

Mariners vs. Astros pick

Mariners +140 (BetMGM)